Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata‐model comparisons, and future projections
Identifieur interne : 002E05 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002E04; suivant : 002E06Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata‐model comparisons, and future projections
Auteurs : J. O. Kaplan [Allemagne, Suède, Canada] ; N. H. Bigelow [États-Unis] ; I. C. Prentice [Allemagne] ; S. P. Harrison [Allemagne, Suède] ; P. J. Bartlein [États-Unis] ; T. R. Christensen [Suède] ; W. Cramer [Allemagne] ; N. V. Matveyeva [Russie] ; A. D. Mcguire [États-Unis] ; D. F. Murray [États-Unis] ; V. Y. Razzhivin [Russie] ; B. Smith [Allemagne, Suède] ; D. A. Walker [États-Unis] ; P. M. Anderson [États-Unis] ; A. A. Andreev [Allemagne] ; L. B. Brubaker [États-Unis] ; M. E. Edwards [États-Unis, Norvège, Royaume-Uni] ; A. V. Lozhkin [Russie]Source :
- [ 0148-0227 ]
Abstract
Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing‐season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry‐biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low‐ and high‐shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid‐Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean‐atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid‐Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002559
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Canada, Norvège, Royaume-Uni, Russie, Suède, États-Unis
- Alaska, Brandebourg, Colorado, Trøndelag, Washington (État)
- Potsdam, Seattle, Trondheim
- Université de Washington
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O." last="Kaplan">J. O. Kaplan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country><wicri:regionArea>Also at Plant Ecology, Department of Ecology, Lund University, Lund</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Lund</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Now at Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bigelow, N H" sort="Bigelow, N H" uniqKey="Bigelow N" first="N. H." last="Bigelow">N. H. Bigelow</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Alaska Quaternary Center, University of Alaska, Alaska, Fairbanks</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Fairbanks</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Prentice, I C" sort="Prentice, I C" uniqKey="Prentice I" first="I. C." last="Prentice">I. C. Prentice</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Harrison, S P" sort="Harrison, S P" uniqKey="Harrison S" first="S. P." last="Harrison">S. P. 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V." last="Matveyeva">N. V. Matveyeva</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Russie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Vegetation of the Far North, Komarov Botanical Institute, St. Petersburg</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>St. Petersburg</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcguire, A D" sort="Mcguire, A D" uniqKey="Mcguire A" first="A. D." last="Mcguire">A. D. Mcguire</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Alaska, Fairbanks</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Fairbanks</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Murray, D F" sort="Murray, D F" uniqKey="Murray D" first="D. F." last="Murray">D. F. Murray</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Alaska Museum, Alaska, Fairbanks</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Fairbanks</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Razzhivin, V Y" sort="Razzhivin, V Y" uniqKey="Razzhivin V" first="V. Y." last="Razzhivin">V. Y. Razzhivin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Russie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Vegetation of the Far North, Komarov Botanical Institute, St. Petersburg</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>St. Petersburg</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, B" sort="Smith, B" uniqKey="Smith B" first="B." last="Smith">B. Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country><wicri:regionArea>Climate Impacts Group, Department of Ecology, Lund University, Lund</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Lund</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country><wicri:regionArea>Now at Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Lund</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Walker, D A" sort="Walker, D A" uniqKey="Walker D" first="D. A." last="Walker">D. A. Walker</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Colorado</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Alaska, Fairbanks</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Fairbanks</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, P M" sort="Anderson, P M" uniqKey="Anderson P" first="P. M." last="Anderson">P. M. Anderson</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Washington, Seattle</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Andreev, A A" sort="Andreev, A A" uniqKey="Andreev A" first="A. A." last="Andreev">A. A. Andreev</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Alfred Wegner Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Forschungsstelle Potsdam, Potsdam</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="2">Brandebourg</region><settlement type="city">Potsdam</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brubaker, L B" sort="Brubaker, L B" uniqKey="Brubaker L" first="L. B." last="Brubaker">L. B. Brubaker</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Washington, Seattle</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edwards, M E" sort="Edwards, M E" uniqKey="Edwards M" first="M. E." last="Edwards">M. E. Edwards</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Alaska</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Norvège</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geography, Norges Teknisk‐Naturvitenskapelige Universitet, Trondheim</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Trondheim</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Trøndelag</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Now at Department of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Southampton</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lozhkin, A V" sort="Lozhkin, A V" uniqKey="Lozhkin A" first="A. V." last="Lozhkin">A. V. Lozhkin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Russie</country><wicri:regionArea>Northeast Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Magadan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><idno type="ISSN">0148-0227</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0148-0227</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing‐season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry‐biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low‐ and high‐shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid‐Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean‐atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid‐Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Canada</li><li>Norvège</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>Russie</li><li>Suède</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Alaska</li><li>Brandebourg</li><li>Colorado</li><li>Trøndelag</li><li>Washington (État)</li></region><settlement><li>Potsdam</li><li>Seattle</li><li>Trondheim</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Washington</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Allemagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kaplan, J O" sort="Kaplan, J O" uniqKey="Kaplan J" first="J. O." last="Kaplan">J. O. Kaplan</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Andreev, A A" sort="Andreev, A A" uniqKey="Andreev A" first="A. A." last="Andreev">A. A. Andreev</name><name sortKey="Cramer, W" sort="Cramer, W" uniqKey="Cramer W" first="W." last="Cramer">W. Cramer</name><name sortKey="Harrison, S P" sort="Harrison, S P" uniqKey="Harrison S" first="S. P." last="Harrison">S. P. Harrison</name><name sortKey="Prentice, I C" sort="Prentice, I C" uniqKey="Prentice I" first="I. C." last="Prentice">I. C. Prentice</name><name sortKey="Smith, B" sort="Smith, B" uniqKey="Smith B" first="B." last="Smith">B. Smith</name></country><country name="Suède"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kaplan, J O" sort="Kaplan, J O" uniqKey="Kaplan J" first="J. O." last="Kaplan">J. O. Kaplan</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Christensen, T R" sort="Christensen, T R" uniqKey="Christensen T" first="T. R." last="Christensen">T. R. Christensen</name><name sortKey="Christensen, T R" sort="Christensen, T R" uniqKey="Christensen T" first="T. R." last="Christensen">T. R. Christensen</name><name sortKey="Harrison, S P" sort="Harrison, S P" uniqKey="Harrison S" first="S. P." last="Harrison">S. P. Harrison</name><name sortKey="Smith, B" sort="Smith, B" uniqKey="Smith B" first="B." last="Smith">B. Smith</name><name sortKey="Smith, B" sort="Smith, B" uniqKey="Smith B" first="B." last="Smith">B. Smith</name></country><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kaplan, J O" sort="Kaplan, J O" uniqKey="Kaplan J" first="J. O." last="Kaplan">J. O. Kaplan</name></noRegion></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Bigelow, N H" sort="Bigelow, N H" uniqKey="Bigelow N" first="N. H." last="Bigelow">N. H. Bigelow</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Anderson, P M" sort="Anderson, P M" uniqKey="Anderson P" first="P. M." last="Anderson">P. M. Anderson</name><name sortKey="Bartlein, P J" sort="Bartlein, P J" uniqKey="Bartlein P" first="P. J." last="Bartlein">P. J. Bartlein</name><name sortKey="Brubaker, L B" sort="Brubaker, L B" uniqKey="Brubaker L" first="L. B." last="Brubaker">L. B. Brubaker</name><name sortKey="Edwards, M E" sort="Edwards, M E" uniqKey="Edwards M" first="M. E." last="Edwards">M. E. Edwards</name><name sortKey="Mcguire, A D" sort="Mcguire, A D" uniqKey="Mcguire A" first="A. D." last="Mcguire">A. D. Mcguire</name><name sortKey="Murray, D F" sort="Murray, D F" uniqKey="Murray D" first="D. F." last="Murray">D. F. Murray</name><name sortKey="Walker, D A" sort="Walker, D A" uniqKey="Walker D" first="D. A." last="Walker">D. A. Walker</name><name sortKey="Walker, D A" sort="Walker, D A" uniqKey="Walker D" first="D. A." last="Walker">D. A. Walker</name></country><country name="Russie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Matveyeva, N V" sort="Matveyeva, N V" uniqKey="Matveyeva N" first="N. V." last="Matveyeva">N. V. Matveyeva</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Lozhkin, A V" sort="Lozhkin, A V" uniqKey="Lozhkin A" first="A. V." last="Lozhkin">A. V. Lozhkin</name><name sortKey="Razzhivin, V Y" sort="Razzhivin, V Y" uniqKey="Razzhivin V" first="V. Y." last="Razzhivin">V. Y. Razzhivin</name></country><country name="Norvège"><region name="Trøndelag"><name sortKey="Edwards, M E" sort="Edwards, M E" uniqKey="Edwards M" first="M. E." last="Edwards">M. E. Edwards</name></region></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Edwards, M E" sort="Edwards, M E" uniqKey="Edwards M" first="M. E." last="Edwards">M. E. Edwards</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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